In case you were wondering

I'm not using this blog any more, since I post things like this at The Aperiodical.

Ian Stewart on Black-Scholes

Ian Stewart gives us a taste of his new book Seventeen Equations That Changed the World in a Guardian article about the Black-Scholes equation. This, he says:

provided a rational way to price a financial contract when it still had time to run... It opened up a new world of ever more complex investments, blossoming into a gigantic global industry. But when the sub-prime mortgage market turned sour, the darling of the financial markets became the Black Hole equation, sucking money out of the universe in an unending stream.

So what went wrong? Stewart explains that "the equation itself wasn't the real problem", going into some detail about how the equation was derived, how it works and what assumptions are included. He concludes:

Was an equation to blame for the financial crash, then? Yes and no. Black-Scholes may have contributed to the crash, but only because it was abused. In any case, the equation was just one ingredient in a rich stew of financial irresponsibility, political ineptitude, perverse incentives and lax regulation.

Ultimately, Stewart argues, "the financial sector performs no better than random guesswork", with the system "too complex to be run on error-strewn hunches and gut feelings, but current mathematical models don't represent reality adequately", a situation that requires "requires more mathematics, not less".

Guardian: The mathematical equation that caused the banks to crash.

Math/Maths 85: Scientists vs. Investment Bankers

A conversation about mathematics between the UK and USA from Pulse-Project.org. This week Samuel and Peter spoke about: Every odd integer larger than 1 is the sum of at most five primes; No pardon for Alan Turing; more super bowl math; Early results from the Met Office weather game; Trends in Race/Ethnicity and Gender Representation in the Mathematical Sciences; Wolfram|Alpha Pro; more on Elsevier boycott; & more.

Download or stream via pulse-project.org.
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Met Office Weather Game - early results

Last summer the Met Office launched an online game to understand how best to present probabilities in weather forecasts. This game was collecting data for a project on perception of probabilities.

The Met Office reports game was played more than 11,000 times. A blog post presents some initial findings:

When faced with straightforward decisions, providing probabilities doesn’t confuse people.
For more complex situations, on average people are able to make better decisions using probabilities.
People make the best decisions when more detailed information on forecast uncertainty is provided.

Data analysis continues.

Met Office: Early results from our record-breaking weather game.

Wolfram|Alpha Pro

Stephen Wolfram writes what Wolfram|Alpha Pro does and what it will cost you. He says:

Over the two and a half years since we first launched, Wolfram|Alpha has been growing rapidly in content and capabilities. But today’s introduction of Wolfram|Alpha Pro in effect adds a whole new model for interacting with Wolfram|Alpha—and brings all sorts of fundamentally new and remarkable capabilities.

Broadly speaking, this adds capabilities around inputting into and download and customise the output from the system.

Announcing Wolfram|Alpha Pro.

Bridging the Mathematics Gap: your views

The Advisory Committee on Mathematics Education have a call for views on post-16 education. This says:

In a speech at the Royal Society in July 2011, the Secretary of State Michael Gove stated his wish that within ten years, all young people would be studying some form of mathematics post-16. ACME is seeking views on how we can make this a reality.

A paper giving some background information & details of how to submit your views are available via the website.

ACME: Bridging the Mathematics Gap : Have Your Say.

Every odd integer larger than 1 is the sum of at most five primes

Terence Tao has uploaded to the arXiv a paper “Every odd number greater than 1 is the sum of at most five primes“, submitted to Mathematics of Computation. He says this result is:

in the spirit of (though significantly weaker than) the even Goldbach conjecture (every even natural number is the sum of at most two primes) and odd Goldbach conjecture (every odd natural number greater than 1 is the sum of at most three primes). It also improves on a result of Ramaré that every even natural number is the sum of at most six primes. This result had previously also been established by Kaniecki under the additional assumption of the Riemann hypothesis, so one can view the main result here as an unconditional version of Kaniecki’s result.

No pardon for Turing

A government minister in the Ministry of Justice, Lord McNally, in response to a question from Lord Sharkey on Thursday 2nd February 2012 made a statement in the House or Lords that "a posthumous pardon [for Alan Turing] was not considered appropriate".

The statement acknowledges that the offence of which Turing was convicted "now seems both cruel and absurd" but says that Turing "would have known that his offence was against the law and that he would be prosecuted". This says that the:

long-standing policy has been to accept that such convictions took place and, rather than trying to alter the historical context and to put right what cannot be put right, ensure instead that we never again return to those times.

Back when the pardon petition was launched in November 2011, John Graham-Cumming, the man responsible for the Turing apology petition in 2009, wrote a blog post explaining why he did not support the pardon petition: Why I'm not supporting the campaign for a pardon for Alan Turing (26 November 2011).

On the Math/Maths Podcast this week Samuel Hansen spoke convincingly about a pardon, above an apology, as having the effect of removing the conviction, not merely apologising for it. Graham-Cumming points to the Protection of Freedoms bill, currently passing through the House of Lords, which:

specifically allows for the disregarding of convictions under the old law that was used against Turing. Once disregarded the law causes their convictions to be deleted. It's not quite the same thing as a pardon, but its effect is to lift the burden of a criminal record from these living men [those who are "still hurt by that law"].

Puzzlebomb 2 released

Katie Steckles has released Puzzlebomb 2. If you missed it, Puzzlebomb 1 was released last month and caused some entertainment at my local Maths Jam. These puzzle sheets contain original puzzles.

The solutions for Puzzlebomb 1 have also been released.

Math/Maths 84: A π-curious Nerd

Math/Maths 84 is now available.

A conversation about mathematics between the UK and USA from Pulse-Project.org. This week Peter spoke with special guest Matt Parker about Festival Of The Spoken Nerd, Your Days Are Numbered, use of the word 'geek' and the Telegraph Numeracy campaign, and with Samuel, live from the streets of New York City, spoke about: superbowl math; The Crafoord Prize; John Leech MP says Alan Turing should be pardoned; singingbanana code challenge 2012; Non-transitive Grime Dice; Facebook-type Mathematics networking site; Torus Games & more.

Conference: IMA Mathematics 2012

The seventh annual IMA "Mathematics" conference will take place on Thursday 22 March 2012 in London. The website has the following details:

Mathematics 2012 is the seventh in the series of annual IMA conferences to promote mathematics. This series aims to demonstrate to both mathematicians and non mathematicians the many uses of modern mathematics. The work of the speakers this year includes the food industry, defence, finance and government. Also included are current topics in mathematics such as the promotion of mathematics to a wider audience and the interface between school and university mathematics.
We hope that the audience will have mathematicians, those who work with mathematicians in policy forming roles, and anyone who has an interest in developments in the applications of mathematics.

A list of speakers and topics, plus registration details, are available via the IMA website.

IMA: Mathematics 2012.

Open mic for science communication

Science Showoff promises "open mic for all communicators of science" and aims to be

a place where people from all the bits of the science communication industry could share their latest work, in a performance-based way, and then chew it over with a pint in hand (or a whisky in hand). We also wanted it to be democratic, with space for people we see all the time, as well as people we’ve never seen perform before.

Science Showoff will run its fifth night in London in the evening of Tuesday 7th February. The gig is free with a collection for London Wildlife Trust. There are ten acts covering a range of sciences and here are three I would be most looking forward to (if I was anywhere near London):

Katie Steckles, who is well known in maths communication, will present a session on Fibonacci and the Golden Ratio:

A lot of people have heard of the Golden Ratio, but many, even those who have read Dan Brown books, might not know exactly what it is. I will give several illustrative explanations, using stuffed rabbits and slagging off TV presenters, and hopefully give you some idea of why I think it’s incredibly lovely.

Helen Arney, one third of Festival of the Spoken Nerd, promises:

I’ll be trying out a new singalong song that encompasses time, space, mathematics and philosophy. Features live powerpoint!

Rhys Phillips, who featured on the Travels in a Mathematical World Podcast episode 63, talking about lightning:

Rhys “Lightning” Phillips will be looking at what happens when planes are hit by lightning and showing cool videos of things going bang in a lightning lab! He’ll also be pondering on why song writers think that lightning is frightening.

Full line up: Science Showoff 5 (will make you get down) LINE-UP ANNOUNCED (1 February 2012).

singingbanana code challenge

James Grime, of the Enigma project and guest editor of the February 2012 code month at Nrich, has posted a code breaking challenge on his YouTube channel singingbanana. The prize is a signed copy of Simon Singh's The Code Book. You can get the ciphertext to decrypt along with a couple of clues presented with James' trademark charm in the video singingbanana code challenge 2012. The winner and solution will be announced in March.

(Edited 11:28 to add link to Nrich Codes and Ciphers - February 2012 page.)

Three new Mathematics Matters case studies

Three new case studies have been posted to the IMA's Mathematics Matters series. This aims to address the following problem:

The industry and technology that surrounds us owes a great debt to modern mathematics research, yet this fact is perfectly hidden in its physical manifestation. The concern with this state of affairs is that what is unknown cannot be appreciated or valued.

The new case studies, on finding replacements for fossil fuels and finding a new, non-invasive, way to monitor diabetes, takes the total now available to 26.

IMA: Mathematics Matters.

Alan Turing Pardon: Early Day Motion

John Leech MP, on his blog, reports having submitted an Early Day Motion (EDM) to Parliament calling for a pardon for Alan Turing.

The Parliament website defines EDMs:

Early day motions (EDMs) are tabled by MPs to publicise a particular event or cause, and to gather support among MPs for that event or cause. MPs demonstrate their support for an EDM by signing the motion.

Gordon Brown issued a Government apology in 2009 for the way Turing was treated following a conviction of gross indecency in 1952. A pardon would go further. In his blog post, John Leech reports that the EDM is "prompted by a petition on the Downing Street web page". This e-petition calls for a pardon to go "some way to healing" the damage caused by the circumstances of Turing's death, in recognition of the work Turing did, and to "act as an apology to many of the other gay men, not as well known as Alan Turing, who were subjected to these laws".

The full text of the petition is available on the Downing Street website and the full text of the EDM is on John Leech's blog.

John Leech MP: Alan Turing should be pardoned (31 January 2012).
e-petition: Grant a pardon to Alan Turing.
BBC: PM apology after Turing petition (2009).
Parliament: Early Day Motions.

A dozen stats tips for journalists

A post on the website of the getstats campaign offers a dozen tips for journalists, who "increasingly have to have at least minimal competence in understanding stats and data, if they are going to do a creditable job".

From a warning to think about the motivation of whoever "cooked up" the number in a press release, to putting figures in context to add to their impact, the list is aimed at the basic skill set that getstats thinks are "the basis for a journalistic career in the 21st century". Your views on the items in the list are invited via the webpage.

getstats: What Journalists Need to Know (31 January 2012).

2012 BSA Media Fellows - call for applications

In Math/Maths 78: Researchers and the Media Special we spoke to Nathan Green, a researcher who had done a Media Fellowship with the British Science Association. These

aim to bridge the communication gap between scientists and journalists and give space for a dialogue between the two. They reflect the British Science Association's commitment to increasing the accessibility of the sciences and providing opportunities for discussion and debate. The Media Fellowships aim to give scientists and their colleagues, the confidence and willingness to engage with the media and tackle issues of mistrust and misrepresentation and to give journalists access to new scientific expertise.
The Media Fellowship scheme is the only one of it's kind in the UK.

If this sounds interesting, you'll be pleased to hear the call for 2012 BSA Media Fellows is now open. These are for fellowships lasting between 3-7 weeks during July to September 2012. Applications close at midnight on 11 March 2012. You can read lots about the scheme, tips on applying and apply online via the BSA website.

Application for 2012 Media Fellowships.

Where are you? I'll ask your friends

An article in New Scientist explains how users of social networks might "unwittingly leak" location information through their friends.

A system developed by Adam Sadilek of the University of Rochester in New York predicts Twitter users' locations by looking at their and their friends' tweets. It does so using a dynamic Bayesian network, a way of encoding probabilities using graph theory that provides "a natural tool for dealing with two problems that occur throughout applied mathematics and engineering - uncertainty and complexity".

A trial using four million tweets from users in Los Angeles and New York was conducted and this found that:

a couple of weeks of location data on an individual, combined with location data from their two most sharing friends, is enough to place that person within a 100-metre radius with 77 per cent accuracy. That rises to nearly 85 per cent when you combine information from nine friends. Even someone who has never shared their location can be pinpointed with 47 per cent accuracy from information available from two friends, rising to 57 per cent with nine.

New Scientist mentions the obvious privacy concerns and point out some potential benefits in epidemiology, or to find nearby friends in case of a suicide attempt. It is worth reading the whole article, the rest of which discusses how a system might identify someone - or not - through their ability to identify photos of their friends, and a new programming system developed at MIT that "automatically enforces privacy policies".

New Scientist: What your online friends reveal about where you are (25 January 2012).

The man who puts the Grime into Grime dice

In a new video Matt Parker and Steve Mould, the guys behind mathsgear.co.uk, the website which sells "items of mathematical interest", talk to "the man who puts the word Grime into Grime dice", James Grime. Grime dice are a unique set of five non-transitive dice invented by James and for sale via mathsgear.co.uk. The video is an amusing short run through the interesting properties of the dice. It even includes some 'acting' from the guys. Delightful!

Math/Maths 83: Pac-Man is NP-Hard

Episode 83 of the Math/Maths Podcast has been released.

This week Samuel and Peter spoke about: Pac-Man is NP-Hard; How to learn to love maths; The Gender Gap in Maths; The Mathematician's Shirts photos; Algorithmic Education; Mathematics World UK Launch; Neighbourly Advice; Vision for science and mathematics education 5–19; Approximating the Hilbert Curve with 3-D Printers; Elsevier & The Cost of Knowledge revisited; Turing Centenary Events; Science Sparring Society's First Fight.

Download this and find out how to subscribe over at pulse-project.org.